Equine Flu threatens Melbourne Cup

AUSTRALIA'S premier race, the Melbourne Cup, is still no certainty to proceed as the shadow of equine flu hangs across the industry.

According to federal Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran, he cannot guarantee the Melbourne Cup will go ahead, despite Victoria remaining free of equine influenza.

Other states, particularly NSW, have been hit hard.. About 1500 horses in Victoria will be vaccinated, with a shipment of 20,000 doses of vaccine expected to arrive from France on Thursday. It takes up to three weeks for a horse to gain full immunity against equine influenza once vacccinated. "We'll start vaccinating them at the end of the week but it's going to be a pretty nervous wait to make sure influenza doesn't get introduced into Victoria for three weeks," Mr McGauran said on Southern Cross radio. Asked if he could guarantee the Melbourne Cup would go ahead, the minister said: "No, but I think the next three weeks will decide it. "If it's not introduced into Victoria, the immunity will be acquired by the horses (vaccinated). "But nobody should celebrate or relax until the carnival's completely finished.

" Mr McGauran said horse owners would have to bear the cost of vaccinating their animals - up to $150 a year to cover as many as three shots - if containment failed and the virus spread. "We're certainly doing the initial vaccinations as part of the containment strategy, but if we give up on containment and influenza becomes accepted in the horse population I'm afraid that will be borne by each owner," he said. Victoria wanted more scientific assessment before allowing potentially infected NSW horses to run in its races, he said. The Federal Government has set up an inquiry, headed by former High Court judge Ian Callinan, to investigate the quarantine failure that led to the outbreak. Mr McGauran said it could take "months" for the inquiry to be completed. Earlier today, he said there was evidence that measures to contain the spread of the virus were working, despite reports horse flu had spread to Singapore.

"In fact there's a green zone declared for much of southern NSW where horses can move more freely, so it's a long way from Victoria at this stage," he said on Channel 9. Mr McGauran said it appeared more likely than not that the spring racing carnival would go ahead.

"I think it will," he said. "On the balance of probabilities it will proceed because Victoria is still free of influenza.

"There's a lot of territory north of the Victoria-NSW border that is free of influenza. What will sabotage the spring carnival is if somebody violates the ban on the movement of horses and brings it across that border into Victoria, or a person negligently or innocently carries it on their person into Victoria. "We have to prepare for the worst-case scenario and that's why we're vaccinating the spring carnival horses."